Relegation focus sees five still worried


Newcastle is buzzing, Fulham confounding, and West Brom dreaming (just a little).

Funny what a couple of weeks can do for a team’s outlook on the season.

The Premier League run-in is here and the business end of the season will provide plenty of drama, as always, during the countdown to the final day on May 23.

[ MORE: Mourinho on Kane injury, Pogba criticism ]

When it comes to preserving Premier League status for another year, who needs what? Which teams will be scrapping away in the final seven games of the season?

Our weekly series, the run-in, keeps you fully up to date on all of the different battles going on up and down the Premier League.

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Premier League relegation battle: The run-in analysis

Sheffield United is going down and it may well happen on Saturday if Newcastle gets a result versus West Ham and the Blades don’t get a point or better at Wolves.

West Brom’s Matheus Pereira-led offensive outburst may have engineered six points and some hope for Sam Allardyce’s Baggies, who now control their own 18th-place destiny, but they need big success and big failure from either Newcastle, Burnley, or Brighton, too

The schedule makers have built quite the run-in for the five teams facing the highest potential to go down. Five Thirty Eight’s simulations have this pretty straight-forward:

West Brom goes down in 97 percent of their simulations

Fulham is at 82 percent

Newcastle’s third with 15 percent

Burnley comes next at 5

Brighton only heads to the Championship in 1 percent of simulations

It’s easy to see why the most extreme cases are so: Brighton’s a good-performing and unlucky team with points left on the docket (though leaving it late is a bad idea). West Brom likely has to collect 14 or more points from a fixture list with no one lower than 12th and three teams sixth or higher.

Story continues

In Fulham’s case, the Cottagers have one fewer game than the field and still face Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool. Lose all those and Scott Parker’s men would need to win the other three and hope Newcastle takes less than four points, Brighton and Burnley less than five.

Newcastle seems likely to either seal their safety with a win at home to West Home early Saturday or be in 17th before the final two fixtures versus Sheffield United and Fulham. Still, there are chances for relief at the end.

Burnley? Still the wild card for tears in beers at The Royal Dyche, if only because they can still give three points to Fulham and have been beaten by Newcastle and Southampton while drawing West Brom and Fulham across their last eight matches.

Burnley
Man United (A)
Wolves (A)
West Ham (H)
Fulham (A)
Leeds (H)
Liverpool (H)
Sheffield United (A)

Brighton
Chelsea (A)
Sheffield United (A)
Leeds (H)
Wolves (A)
West Ham (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)

Newcastle
West Ham (H)
Liverpool (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester City (A)
Man City (H)
Sheffield United (H)
Fulham (A)

Fulham
Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (A)
Burnley (H)
Southampton (A)
Man United (A)
Newcastle (H)

West Bromwich Albion
Leicester City (A)
Aston Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Arsenal (A)
Liverpool (H)
West Ham (H)
Leeds (A)

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Premier League run-in: Relegation focus sees five still worried originally appeared on NBCSports.com



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